| International Journal of Ecology & Development | ||
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ISSN 0972-9984 |
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ABSTRACT |
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Volume 4 |
No. W06 |
Winter 2006 |
(Anticipated) Climate Change Impacts on Australia P. Le C.F.Stewart & SR Vemuri ABSTRACT This paper looks at the implications of climate change and the use of General Circulation Models, the risks involved and the uncertainties with predicting future climate outcomes with a focus on Australia and probable impacts on various industries and the biota of the Australian Continent. One thing we know for sure is that climate change is happening and the planet is getting warmer. Twelve of warmest years have occurred in the 1900’s, 10 having occurred between 1987 and 1998. The top 300 metres of the sea surface temperature has increased, which may have catastrophic consequences for the planet if the conveyer belt system is changed or halted. With increased terrestrial temperatures diseases are now migrating into regions that they were not found in before. Evidence suggests that with the increased heating of the planet, energy availability will increase to drive extreme weather events, which could have a ripple effect throughout the Earth system with local, regional and global positive feedbacks feeding on each other, amplifying and accelerating warming. Due to the uncertainties in climate modeling we need to develop more accurate GCMs, which we need to link to the impacts they have on decision making, as predictions do not automatically transfer to the management of natural disasters as can be seen in the resent New Orleans Cyclone impact. As forecasting using GCMs only deals in probabilities, a cohesive and collaborative research approach to climate change is required to achieve success in assessing risk and uncertainty. Keywords: Climate change, greenhouse gases, Biodiversity, General Circulation Models, Greenhouse warming.
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Measuring Socioeconomic Influences on Land Use Distribution at Watershed Level: A Multinomial Logit Analysis Gandhi Raj Bhattarai , Daowei Zhang and Upton HatchABSTRACT Allocation of fixed proportions of land to developed, agricultural, forest, and other uses in a watershed was modeled as an optimization problem faced by a single user. Two time period cross-sectional data for 60 watersheds were used in the analysis. A multinomial logit model was used to explain the effect of population density, mean age, market concentration, travel time to work, road accessibility, personal income, education level and longitude and latitude of watersheds. Developed land use share was positively related to higher market concentrations and road accessibility, but with a higher average time to work, suggesting a rural-urban job interface. Personal income had significant and negative influence in agricultural land share, which in contrast, was increased with higher proportion of people with college degrees. As the largest city in the study area is blocked by a major river in its west, longitude had a negative influence on developed land share and a positive influence on agricultural, forest and other land use. Latitude positively influenced developed, agricultural and other land shares but negatively influenced share of forestland as the study area is on U.S. costal plains. Keywords: multinomial logit, land use, watershed |
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Effect of Inclusion of a Synthetic Vortex on the Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone over the Bay of Bengal Using a Mesoscale Model S. Sandeep, A.Chandrasekar and S.K.Dash ABSTRACT Tropical cyclones form over the data-sparse sea regions and hence are analyzed very poorly. This results in initial errors, which may impact on the cyclone track forecast. A solution to the above is to remove the weak initial vortex and replace it with a synthetic vortex (with the correct size, intensity and location) in the initial analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of introducing a synthetic vortex (based on the NCAR-AFWA scheme) using the regional model MM5 on a tropical cyclone, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002. It is found that inclusion of the synthetic vortex has caused improvement in the simulation of wind asymmetries and warm temperature anomalies. The central minimum pressure and the maximum wind speed of the simulations with synthetic vortex are lower by 12 hPa and higher by 12 m sec –1 as compared to the simulations without the synthetic vortex. Also, this has resulted in a considerable reduction of the track prediction errors: 168 km in 06 hours, 109 km in 12 hours, 332 km in 18 hours, 601 km in 24 hours and 126 km in 30 hours of forecast. However, the impact of synthetic vortex reduces after 30 hours and the track error is higher by 80 km in 36 hours and 284 km in 42 hours of forecast.
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A Global Stability Result and Existence and Uniqueness of Solution to an Age-Structured SI Epidemic Model with Disease-Induced Mortality and Vertical Transmission of Disease M. El-Doma Abstract We prove the existence and uniqueness of solution to an SI age- structured epidemic model for a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease when the fertility, natural mortality and disease-induced mortality rates depend on age and the force of infection of proportionate mixing assumption type. We also show that solutions of the model equations depend continuously on the initial age-distributions; and that the trivial equilibrium is globally stable, if the net reproduction rate is less than one.Keywords: Age-structure; Epidemic; Existence; Uniqueness; Vertical transmission; Horizontal transmission; Stability; Continuous dependence on initial age-distributions. MSC 2000: 45K05, 35A05,35B30, 35B45,35B65,35L60, 92D30, 92D25. |
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Particle Swarm Optimisation Techniques for Deriving Operation Policies for Maximum Hydropower Generation: A Case Study C. R. Suribabu ABSTRACT Planning the operation of reservoir for optimal power generation is important, due to uncertainty in future inflows and energy demand. The national interest in generating the hydroelectric power has focused on the potential for greater energy production from existing and planned reservoir systems. Determining the optimal long-term operation of a reservoir and assessing its potential towards various purposes for which it is intended, has been attempted by applying operation research techniques. A model for optimal operating policy of a reservoir for power generation using Particle swarm algorithm is developed. The focus of this paper is to assess the power generation potential of Indirasagar reservoir across the river Narmada in central part of India by Particle swarm optimisation (PSO) technique. This paper describes the monthly hydropower generation optimisation model to maximize the hydropower. The simulated results of the model show that the PSO is most promising and competitive and can be used for reservoir operation. Key Words: Hydroelectric power, operation research, particle swarm optimisation, reservoir operation. |
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